The transportation industry, specifically shipping, is undergoing structural changes in 2026. These stem both from a slow and uncertain return of ships to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, but also from increased regulatory costs associated with the European Union’s decarbonization goals.
The European Union’s carbon rules are no longer just guidelines; they are reshaping the economics of the transportation industry, especially shipping. In 2026, the EU ETS steps up: 100% of emissions from intra-EU/EEA voyages and 50% of emissions on voyages into or out of the EU/EEA now require allowances, and carbon costs are rising fast. For carriers, that means higher operational costs. For shippers, it translates into increased transport costs and exposure across their supply chains.
What Changes in 2026
The year 2026 marks a significant escalation in both the financial and technical requirements of the EU ETS. The most important change regards the percentage of emissions requiring allowances, which jumps from 70% in 2025 to 100% of emissions from voyages between two EU ports and when ships are within EU ports. At the same time, as the cap on available allowances is lowered, the price per ton is expected to at least become more volatile, if not increase outright. BloombergNEF’s forecast reveals that prices could reach up to €122 per ton of CO2 by 2030.
For shipping, the EU ETS has transformed the carbon footprint from a mere environmental metric into a high operational cost. Carriers are legally responsible for monitoring, reporting, and verifying (MRV) their data. Shippers, on the other hand, face increased transport costs as carriers add contractual clauses and surcharges to charter contracts, aiming to share the cost or, straight up, pass it down entirely.
EU ETS-related Surcharges: Carriers' Decisions for Q1 2026
Surcharges are subject to the cost of carbon credit and, therefore, carriers reassess them quarterly. For Q1 2026, most carriers announced their decisions after December, with some being very thorough and analytical, applying different surcharges based on trade, TEU category, and TEU size.
Maersk is one of those carriers. Their Q1 2026 surcharge table accounts for trade, container size (20 feet, 40 feet, or 45 feet), and container type (dry or reefer).
In general, regardless of the level of granularity in surcharges across different carriers, one thing is certain: surcharges have now substantially increased compared to previous years.
The Impact of EU ETS in Numbers
In 2025, 22.9% of all containership voyages were either towards a European port, or from a European port, or both. 80% of voyages affected were carried out by smaller vessels, specifically Feeder and Panamax containerships.
Figure 1 Distribution of EU ETS-affected containership voyages by vessel size, 2025
In 2025, CO2 emissions that needed to be accounted for under the EU ETS almost reached 18.8 million tons. Assuming voyage patterns won’t significantly differ in 2026, companies will need to buy allowances for approximately 26.9 million tons of emissions.
*Only the 50% of emissions that depend on the EU ETS are depicted here.
Carbon cost is dynamic and depends on supply and demand. As Maersk points out in its announcement regarding EU ETS surcharges for the first quarter of 2026, allowances traded at an average of 76,75 euros between August 16 and November 15, 2025.
Therefore, assuming the carbon cost of those levels, the EU ETS cost to carriers exceeded $1.4 billion during 2025. International voyages incurred the larger part of the overall cost (close to 67%), while the rest (33%) was due to regional trade.
Those levels are the minimum that carriers will be held accountable for. However, they are not the maximum, since shipping companies can choose not to buy allowances and instead pay the fine. At the moment, the fine is set at $100 per ton, so the cost to carriers could reach up to a maximum of $2.7 billion in 2026.
Shipper’s Case Study: 2026 EU ETS Cost
For this example, we used the case of one of our customers, who shipped a total of 478 TEU in 2025 on the same vessel, between two Mediterranean ports, with Trieste, Italy, as the port of loading. For the purposes of this example, we assume that our client will move the same amount of cargo in 2026. Based on the surcharges Maersk announced for the first quarter of 2026, each TEU would incur an additional transport cost due to the EU ETS of €28. Therefore, our shipper would have an EU-ETS exposure of €13,384 in 2026.
At the same time, across all its voyages in 2025, the ship emitted a total of 2,798 CO2e tons. Under the same assumption (similar activity in 2026 as in 2025), the carrier would need to procure allowances for all emissions (required coverage has changed to 100% from this year onward), with a total estimated cost of €214,715 based on an allowance cost of €76,75 per ton. If the carrier does not purchase allowances, the ship would incur fines of €279,759 (based on a fine of €100 per ton).
We estimate that, on some routes, the surcharges carriers apply will exceed their total EU ETS costs. However, on other routes, carriers will be on the negative side, making the overall picture more balanced.
Beyond Industry Averages: The Case for Voyage-Specific Emissions Data
The example above reveals a critical issue: most shippers rely on generic emissions data that bears little resemblance to reality. Carriers typically provide emissions calculations in excel spreadsheets based on port-to-port minimum feasible distances and average conversion factors. These calculations ignore the actual conditions that determine each voyage's carbon footprint: distance sailed (including all port calls and transshipments), actual vessel speed collected via AIS signals, waiting times in anchorages and berth operations, voyage-specific load factors, and weather conditions along the route. Only with this granularity can emissions calculations be truly vessel-specific, voyage-specific, and cargo-specific.
Without this precision, shippers cannot accurately assess their EU ETS exposure, verify carrier surcharges, or make informed decisions about route optimization and carrier selection. The difference between generic industry averages and real-time voyage data can represent tens of thousands of euros in misallocated costs annually. VesselBot's Supply Chain Sustainability platform provides this voyage-level granularity, enabling shippers to manage carbon costs with precision rather than estimates.
In 2026, EU ETS has transformed carbon from an environmental metric into a direct operational cost for shipping. Shippers must prepare for higher costs, more granular reporting, and route- and vessel-specific decision-making. Relying on outdated market averages or flat surcharge assumptions creates exposure risk. Companies leveraging real-time emissions intelligence can optimize operations, manage carbon costs proactively, and stay ahead of regulatory obligations.
The €2 billion carbon bill isn't just a challenge. It's a catalyst for smarter, data-driven supply chain management.